The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) is pleased to announce the release of its highly anticipated 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report. This comprehensive report, prepared by CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, offers a detailed analysis of Calgary's economic and housing market trends and surrounding areas for the upcoming year.
 
CREB® Unveils 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report

The report delves into the impact of rising lending rates on the housing sector, as buyers looked for more affordable housing options, and some potential sellers held back from listing to navigate the challenges posed by higher lending rates.
 
Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie underscores this dynamic, stating, "Despite higher rates, 2023 was a year of relatively strong sales thanks to a robust labour market and strong migration. The challenge was limited supply, especially for low-priced homes with the strongest demand. This resulted in significant price growth with the largest gains in our lowest-priced homes.”
 
As the report looks ahead to 2024, Lurie anticipates another strong year for sales, stating, "We expect potential buyers, who were on the sidelines due to limited supply choices, to re-enter the market as lending rates ease and listings improve. At the same time, interprovincial migration and a healthy labour market should continue to support stronger sales activity.”
 
Supply remains an issue this year, but gains in new home starts and new listings are expected to support some modest gains.
 
“Conditions are not expected to be as tight as in 2023," Lurie said, "but supply growth takes time, and sellers’ market conditions are expected to persist through the spring, driving further price growth in 2024.”
 
Supply growth is anticipated to be driven mainly by upper price ranges, decelerating the pace of price growth for higher-priced properties. Meanwhile, lower-priced properties are expected to face continued tight conditions, contributing to sustained price gains.
 
The Calgary Real Estate Board remains committed to providing valuable insights to industry professionals and the public, fostering informed decision-making in the ever-evolving real estate landscape.
 
Click here for the full CREB^® 2024 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.

Strong migration and low supply drive Calgary housing prices in 2023

Sales in 2023 did ease relative to last year's peak, but with 27,416 sales, levels were still far higher than long-term trends and activity reported before the pandemic. While sales stayed relatively strong, there was a notable shift in activity toward more affordable apartment condominiums style homes.

“Higher lending rates dampened housing demand this year, but thanks to strong migration levels, housing demand remained relatively strong, especially for affordable options in our market,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “At the same time, supply levels were low compared to the demand throughout the year, resulting in stronger than expected price growth.”

Inventory levels were persistently below long-term trends for the city throughout most of the year, averaging a 44 per cent decline over the 10-year average. We also saw the months of supply remain well below two months throughout most of the year across homes priced below $1,000,000.

The persistently tight conditions contributed to our city's new record high price. While the average annual benchmark price growth did slow from 12 per cent in 2022 to nearly six per cent growth in 2023, the price growth was still relatively strong especially compared to some markets in the country. 

Detached

With an annual decline of nearly 20 per cent, the detached market saw the most significant decline in sales activity. While sales did improve for homes priced above $700,000, limited supply choices in the lower price ranges caused consumers to turn to alternative housing styles. Despite some recent gains in higher-priced new listings, inventories have remained near record lows, and the months of supply have remained relatively low throughout 2023.

The persistently tight market conditions have supported further price growth for detached homes, albeit at a slower pace than last year. On average, the benchmark price rose by nearly eight per cent in 2023, with the most significant gains occurring in the city's most affordable districts.
 

Semi-Detached

Like the detached sector, year-over-year sales growth since May was not enough to offset the pullbacks at the beginning of the year, leaving 2023 sales down by 10 per cent. The decline in sales was driven by pullbacks for homes priced under $500,000, while sales improved for higher-priced properties. The decline in the lower range was primarily due to limited supply choices, preventing stronger sales.

Persistently tight market conditions this year caused prices to trend up throughout most of the year. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by seven per cent over last year—a slower gain than the 12 per cent reported in 2022, but still relatively strong. Price growth ranged from a low of six per cent in the city centre to over 16 per cent in the east district.
 

Row

Limited supply choices in the lower price ranges contributed to the pullback in sales in 2023. Annual sales declined by over 11 per cent despite rising sales for homes priced above $400,000. While new listings did show signs of improving in the second half of the year, all of the gains were reported in the higher price ranges, causing relatively more balanced conditions in the upper price ranges versus the sellers’ market conditions in the lower price ranges.

Conditions favoured the seller throughout the year, supporting an annual benchmark price gain of over 13 per cent. Prices improved across each district, ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the city centre to over 20 per cent price growth in both the North East and East districts.
 

Apartment Condominium

Apartment-style properties were the only property type to report a gain in sales this year, resulting in a record high of 7,884. The growth in sales was possible thanks to the higher starting point for inventory levels and gains in new listings. However, conditions tightened throughout the year, favouring the seller and driving price growth.

Apartment condominium prices finally recovered from their 2014 high earlier this year and have pushed above those levels, reaching a new record high of $321,400 by December. On an annual basis, the 2023 benchmark price rose by over 13 per cent, a faster pace than the annual growth levels reported last year.  

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Primarily due to pullbacks for detached homes, sales in Airdrie declined by 24 per cent over last year's record high. Low inventory levels and a pullback in new listings have somewhat limited sales. While new listings have risen over last year's levels for the past four months, they are still 24 per cent lower than last year. The decline in sales and new listings ensured inventories remained low this year, declining over last year’s and falling to the lowest annual average levels seen since 2006.

For the third year in a row, conditions in Airdrie have generally favoured the seller. This has driven further price gains this year, albeit at a slower pace. On an annual basis, the benchmark price rose by nearly five per cent. This year, the price growth for row and apartment-style properties has been more than double that reported in the detached and semi-detached sectors.
 

Cochrane

Both sales and new listings in Cochrane fell over last year’s levels. However, recent gains in new listings relative to sales did help support some inventory gains. While inventory levels have improved over the low levels reported last year, they remain over 40 per cent below what we traditionally see in the market.

The recent shifts in new listings relative to sales have helped the months of supply stay above two months since September. However, conditions are still relatively tight, and prices continue to rise. While the growth was stronger in the higher-density sectors of the market, the detached benchmark prices increased by four per cent in 2023 over last year.

Okotoks

Supply has been a challenge in Okotoks, impacting sales and prices. While we have seen some improvements lately regarding the level of new listings compared to sales, inventories have remained near record lows and averaged 63 per cent below long-term trends on an annual basis.

Conditions have remained relatively tight throughout most of the year, especially throughout the busier spring season. Despite some monthly variation, prices generally trended up this year and, on an annual basis, rose by over six per cent.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Increased listings, strong sales, and price growth

New listings in November reached 2,227 units, nearly 40 per cent higher than the exceptionally low levels reported last year at this time. Gains in new listings occurred across most price ranges, but the most significant gains occurred from homes priced over $600,000.

Despite the year-over-year jump in new listings, inventory levels remained low thanks to relatively strong sales. With 1,787 sales in November, the sales to new listings ratio remained high at 80 per cent, and the months of supply remained below two months.

“Like other large cities, new listings have been increasing,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “However, in Calgary, the gains have not been enough to change the low inventory situation thanks to strong demand. Our market continues to favour the seller, driving further price growth.”

As of November, the benchmark price was $572,700, up over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than November 2022. Year-to-date, the average benchmark price has risen by over five per cent. 

Detached

Limited supply choice for homes priced below $700,000 has been the primary cause of the decline in detached home sales. While November reported a marginal gain over last year, year-to-date sales have declined by 20 per cent. November saw a rise in new listings compared to the previous year, but higher-priced homes drove most gains. This has left the detached market with exceptionally tight conditions for prices below $700,000 and more balanced conditions for higher-priced homes. Overall, the month of supply remains exceptionally low at under two months.

Persistently tight conditions continue to cause further price gains in the detached market. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $699,500, a slight increase over last month and over 13 per cent higher than last November. While detached home prices are much higher than last year's levels in every district, year-to-date gains are the highest in the most affordable districts of the North East and East. 
 

Semi-Detached

November saw a boost in new listings compared to last year, helping to prevent a year-over-year decline in inventory levels. However, inventory levels are still over 40 per cent below typical levels seen in November. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 77 per cent and a month-of-supply below two months, conditions remain exceptionally tight, especially for homes priced below $700,000. 

Despite tight conditions, benchmark prices remained stable compared to last month. However, at an unadjusted benchmark price of $628,700, prices are still over 12 per cent higher than last year. The year-to-date average benchmark price has risen by nearly seven per cent, with the largest gains occurring in the North East and East districts.
 

Row

New listings rose again this month compared to last year. The 370 new listings were met with 267 sales, and for the first time since 2021, the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell below 75 per cent. The jump in new listings was enough to support a gain in inventory levels compared to last month and last year. While inventories are still nearly half the levels we traditionally see, this did help cause the months of supply to push up to 1.6 months, a significant improvement from the less than one month of supply that has persisted over the past seven months. While conditions are much more balanced in the higher price ranges, there is less than one month of supply for homes priced below $500,000.

Despite the shift away from exceptionally tight conditions, prices still rose over the last month and last year. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $429,100, 21 per cent higher than last November and an average year-to-date gain of nearly 13 per cent.
 

Apartment Condominium

Thanks to the relative affordability of the apartment-style homes, sales continued to reach record highs in November, contributing to year-to-date sales of 7,487. With one month left in the year, sales have already surpassed last year’s record high. This, in part, was possible thanks to the growth in new listings. While inventory levels are similar to levels reported last year, with less than two months of supply, conditions still favour the seller, placing further upward pressure on prices. 

The unadjusted November benchmark price reached $320,100 in November, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of 18 per cent. Year-to-date price gains have occurred across every district in the city, with some of the largest gains arising in the lower-priced North East and East districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Gains in November sales were not enough to offset earlier pullbacks, leaving year-to-date sales down by over 26 per cent over last year's record levels. Much of the decline has been driven by the detached market, which has struggled with supply, especially in the lower price ranges. New listings in November did improve over last year's levels. Still, thanks to the gain in sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 96 per cent, preventing any significant shift from the low inventory levels. 

With less than two months of supply, we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In November, the unadjusted benchmark price rose over last month, reaching $524,500, a year-over-year gain of 11 per cent. Year-to-date price gains have been the highest in the apartment sector at 17 per cent, with detached and semi-detached prices rising by nearly six per cent.
 

Cochrane

With 87 new listings and 51 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 59 per cent in November, the first time it fell below 60 per cent since 2020. Higher-priced properties have primarily driven the recent gain in new listings. Improved new listings compared to sales did help support increases in inventory levels. However, November inventory levels remain over 30 per cent below long-term trends.
 
Tight market conditions have supported further price growth in Cochrane. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $548,600, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of 11 per cent. On average, year-to-date benchmark prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant gains occurring in the apartment condominium sector at over seven per cent. 

Okotoks

November saw a boost in new listings, helping support some of the year-over-year gain in sales. The rise in new listings compared to sales also helped support gains in inventory levels. However, inventory levels are nearly half what we would typically see in the market in November. Nonetheless, the shift this month did help push the months of supply up to nearly two months. 

While the months of supply did improve, conditions remained exceptionally tight, and prices continued to trend up this month. As of November, the unadjusted benchmark price was $590,200, a one per cent gain over last month and over eight per cent higher than last November.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.

Calgary home sales at record highs in September, yet supply remains a challenge

Sales reached another record high in September with 2,441 sales. Despite the year-over-year gains reported over the past four months, year-to-date sales are still nearly 12 per cent lower than last year's levels.

New listings also improved this month compared to last year and relative to sales. This caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 76 per cent, preventing further monthly declines in inventory levels.

Nonetheless, inventory levels in September remained over 24 per cent lower than levels seen last year and, when measured relative to sales activity, has not changed enough to cause any significant shift in supply and demand balances. As of September, the months of supply has remained relatively low at less than two months.

“Supply has been a challenge in our market as strong inter-provincial migration has elevated housing demand despite higher lending rates,” said CREB® Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie. “While new listings are improving, it has not been enough to take us out of sellers’ market conditions.”

In September, the unadjusted residential benchmark price was $570,300, similar to last month and nearly nine per cent higher than last year. 

Detached

Inventory levels remained at record lows for the month as the sales-to-new listings ratio remained relatively high at 76 per cent. The decline in inventory levels has been driven by homes priced below $700,000, as supply levels show some improvement for homes priced above this level. While detached sales improved over levels reported last year, much of the gains were driven by the higher-priced properties with some supply options. Overall, homes priced below $700,000 continue to struggle with less than one month of supply.
 
Despite persistently tight market conditions, the unadjusted benchmark price remained relatively stable this month compared to last month, as a monthly price adjustment in the West end of the city offset monthly gains in all other districts. Overall, at a benchmark price of $696,100, prices are still over 11 per cent higher than levels reported last year at this time, with year-over-year gains ranging from a high of 20 per cent in the East district to a low of nine per cent in the City Centre.
 

Semi-Detached

September reported a boost in new listings compared to sales activity as the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped below 70 per cent, the first time it has done that since September of last year. The one-month shift supported a monthly increase in inventory levels, but with 295 units available, inventories have not been this low since September 2005.
 
Following ten consecutive monthly price gains, benchmark prices in September did ease slightly over the last month. However, at a benchmark price of $621,300, prices are still 11 per cent higher than last year’s levels. The monthly pause in price was primarily driven by adjustments in the West and North West districts, which saw the months of supply rise above levels reported last year and last month.
 

Row

The pullback in monthly sales outpaced the pullback in new listings, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 84 per cent. While conditions are still exceptionally tight, it is an improvement over the 90 per cent average reported since April. The shift also prevented any further monthly declines in inventory levels. However, with less than one month of supply, the persistently tight conditions continue to place upward pressure on prices.
 
The benchmark price in September reached $419,400, a 1.5 per cent monthly gain and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year. Price gains have occurred across all districts, with the most significant gains occurring in the most affordable districts in the city.
 

Apartment Condominium

New listings in September were at the highest levels reported for September, contributing to the record-high sales this month. Year-to-date apartment condominium sales reached 6,286 sales, a 25 per cent gain over last year and a record high for the city. Higher lending rates and tight rental market conditions have kept demand for apartment-style products strong. While inventory levels did see a modest gain compared to last month, thanks to a lower sales-to-new-listings ratio, conditions remain exceptionally tight with 1.5 months of supply.
 
The persistently tight market conditions have continued to drive further price gains. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $312,800, a 1.2 per cent increase over last month and nearly 15 per cent higher than last year.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

With 204 new listings and 144 sales, the sales-to-new-listings ratio dropped to 70 per cent, the first time that has happened since 2020. Improved new listings compared to sales helped support a modest monthly gain in inventory levels. However, September inventory levels are still amongst the lowest levels reported since 2005, keeping the months of supply exceptionally low with just over one month.
 
The persistently tight market conditions have continued to drive further price gains in the city. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $518,000, reflecting a year-over-year increase of over eight per cent. Price gains have occurred across all property types, with the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the apartment condominium sector.
 

Cochrane

Both sales and new listings eased in September, leaving inventory levels relatively stable this month. While inventories are nearly 40 per cent lower than long-term trends for the month, they are not at the record lows seen. The pullback in sales compared to inventory levels also caused the months of supply to push up above two months, the first time we have seen that since February.
 
While conditions remain relatively tight, the shift likely prevented further upward pressure on monthly home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in September was $532,700, slightly lower than last month due to pullbacks in the detached, semi-detached and row sectors. Despite the monthly pause, total residential prices are still over five per cent higher than September 2022 levels. 

Okotoks

With 69 new listings and 52 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 75 per cent in September, the lowest ratio seen since August 2022. The gain in new listings relative to sales prevented any further monthly declines in inventory levels. However, with only 70 units available in September, inventory levels are still amongst the lowest reported monthly levels in over 20 years.
 
The modest adjustment in both inventory and sales did cause the months of supply to rise over last month’s levels. Still, conditions remain relatively tight, especially for semi-detached, row and apartment-style properties. As of September, the unadjusted benchmark price was $580,200, nearly nine per cent higher than last year.
 

Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.

Click here to view the full Calgary region monthly stats package.